Sep
10
2021
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South Asian Summary: September 7-10, 2021

Regional summaries,
With the announcement of a caretaker government by the Taliban, attention across most of the subcontinent is focused on the future of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and China. Taliban 2.0 The sheer volume of articles on Afghanistan and Afghanistan-related topics makes it difficult to document all the positions. But, there does seem to be something of a consensus forming. The Taliban is opting for a hardline government. Not many commentators found it ‘inclusive’. The high place given to the Haqqani network was viewed by many Indian commentators as being the consequence of Pakistani pressure, while some Pakistani commentators said that the…
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Sep
09
2021
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Southeast Asian Summary: September 6-9, 2021

Regional summaries,
Both the South China Sea and Afghanistan have largely fallen by the wayside as objects of focus in Southeast Asian commentary in recent days. China good, bad, and indifferent In Singapore, the interest has mostly been expressed in the reprint of FT columns concerning China’s ideological transformations rather than regional issues. For example, The Chinese control revolution: Maoist echoes of Xi's power play and Xi's digital blueprint for governing China in The Straits Times. In Thailand, more attention is being paid to China’s role in Thailand, with some—particularly among the anti-establishment elements—continuing to accuse China of interfering in Thai domestic…
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Sep
08
2021
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East Asian Summary: September 5-8, 2021

Regional summaries,
Japan elections The LDP leadership vote is scheduled for September 29, and the government is considering a vote for PM the following week, on October 4, according to Japan Today. The selection of a new PM would likely be followed by a general election by as soon as November 7. Japan Today also suggests that Taro Kono, the minister in charge of vaccinations, is the “favorite to become PM” based on his poll numbers. According to the outlet, the Kyodo News agency found 32% support for Kono, 27% for the ‘dovish’ Shigeru Ishiba, 19% for the ‘moderate’ Fumio Kishida, and…
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Sep
07
2021
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South Asian Summary: September 3-7, 2021

Regional summaries,
Many South Asian writers seem to think that the subcontinent has replaced the Middle East as the most contested/valuable geopolitical prize, apparently because it is where Russia, China, India, the US, and the Muslim world meet. Although some seem to be aware of Chinese claims on Taiwan, they are not aware of the Chinese obsession with Taiwan. As Ashutosh Varshney puts it: China’s Taiwan preoccupation is not adequately appreciated in India’s intellectual and political quarters, which remain understandably concerned with China’s border plans. But…Chinese security policy has a relentless Taiwan obsession. For Beijing, the border with India is a much…
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Sep
06
2021
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Southeast Asian Roundup: September 2-6, 2021

Regional summaries, Southeast Asia,
CAMBODIA Parties deny using Sokha’s name for political mileage - Khmer Times Some former court-dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party officials who are forming political parties have allegedly used former CNRP leader Kem Sokha's name to galvanize popularity ahead of the upcoming commune and national elections. Sokha's lawyers have said when his name is used for those parties' benefit, it impacts Sokha as he remains banned from politics after the ex-CNRP was dissolved by the Supreme Court in November 2017, and does not want to be associated with a political party. Kem Sokha’s treason trial has been delayed since the outbreak…
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Sep
03
2021
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South Asia Summary: August 31-September 3, 2021

Regional summaries,
In Afghanistan, the Taliban announced a ‘beefing up’ of relations with China while India says it is too early to recognize the regime. The Taliban are struggling with running an economy while the money runs out. The Taliban announced progress in their campaign against Northern Alliance forces in the ethnically Tajik Panjshir Valley. Neighboring Tajikistan says it is unable to fulfill an earlier assurance that it could take in tens of thousands of Afghan refugees; meanwhile Tajik President Emomali Rahmon signed a decree posthumously awarding the country’s highest honor to two notable Afghans, Ahmad Shah Masud of the Northern Alliance…
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Sep
02
2021
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Southeast Asia Roundup: August 30-September 2, 2021

Regional summaries,
INDONESIA Indonesian crackdown on terror to intensify in wake of ISIS-K attacks in Kabul Jokowi denies wanting third term, but don’t take his word for it LAOS 2022 will be the "Year of Solidarity and Friendship between Vietnam and Laos" MALAYSIA Former PM Najib calls for recall elections if MPs want to change parties MYANMAR Beijing announces special envoy visited Myanmar last week Hundreds Flee During Four Days of Fighting in Myanmar’s Shan State PHILIPPINES Philippine ruling party now looks as fractured as opposition Duterte's daughter says she has 'running mate' offers for Philippines 2022 election SINGAPORE Singaporean PM announces…
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Sep
01
2021
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East Asia Round-up: August 27-September 1, 2021

Regional summaries,
CHINA Most Chinese kids likely to be bored by Grandpa Xi Jinping Thought as they return to schools today Pakistan to China: India shouldn’t spoil Afghan stability Unclear how China intends to implement expanisve new maritime law in Pacific China opens first road-rail transport link to Indian Ocean JAPAN Suga denies report that he plans to delay party leadership race until after election Japan ministry seeks 2.6 percent defense hike amid China worries SOUTH KOREA Alleged North Korean collaborator claims he was privately implementing agreement between North and South Seoul, Beijing restore military cooperation, despite rising strategic competition NORTH KOREA…
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Aug
31
2021
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South Asia Roundup: August 27-31, 2021

Regional summaries,
INDIA India continues to assess the geopolitical fallout from the Taliban conquest of Afghanistan The West Bengal-based Trinamool Congress (TMC) Party continues to attract defectors from national parties BJP agitates to reopen temples in midst of pandemic Fixing Assam’s border problems won’t be easy Caste census: BJP trying to figure a path forward through demographic/political minefield PAKISTAN Pakistan must commit itself to defending Chinese personnel and interests from Indian-backed terrorists operating from Afghanistan Pakistan Army: Borders are secured, prepared to meet 'any' challenge Imran Khan’s govt unthreatened by opposition Railways employees to protest against govt's privatisation plan BANGLADESH Bangladesh National…
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Aug
30
2021
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Southeast Asia Analysis: August 26-30, 2021

Regional summaries,
There continues a raging debate about the US-China rivalry in Southeast Asia and particularly about what America wants and what it is offering, but what is most interesting about this discussion is what is not being talked about. More on that below. Most of the strategic thinking in the popular English-speaking press seems to occur in Singapore’s The Straits Times. One often gets the impression that, however disparate the ASEAN member states’ interests are, on such questions, deference is often paid to Singapore’s point of view. Singapore is more than just a city-state that punches above its weight; it’s almost…
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Aug
29
2021
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East Asia Roundup: August 25-29, 2021

Regional summaries,
ChinaChina, Russia, Iran Military Drills in Gulf Enhance Regional Security, Against External Interference - Global TimesChina, Russia and Iran will hold joint maritime exercises in the Persian Gulf around late 2021 or early 2022, according to Russian Ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan - It is vital for China, Russia and Iran to ensure the safety of international shipping. The three countries are engaging in cooperation in various fields, and as regional countries, are keeping a close eye on the ever changing Afghanistan situation. China and Russia may hope to boost Iran's military capabilities by virtue of the drills as well,…
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Aug
27
2021
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South Asia Summary: August 24-27, 2021

Regional summaries,
There has been a tremendous flood of articles about Afghanistan in South Asia publications over the last three days. In India, attention is focused primarily on countering the threat the country imagines arising from AfPak in the wake of the Taliban victory there, particularly in Kashmir. Domestically, attention is focused on the growing movement for an assessment of caste-based demographics, something that some believe could threaten the coalition of high- and low-caste Hindus put together by the BJP. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) seems to be gaining national stature as rising stars in Congress defect to the West Bengal-based party. The…
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Aug
26
2021
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Southeast Asia Summary: August 23-26, 2021

Regional summaries,
Somewhat unexpectedly, Myanmar was increasingly on the minds of Southeast Asian writers, despite (or rather, because of?) events in Afghanistan and Kamala Harris’s visit to Vietnam.There may be two connections between Afghanistan and Myanmar. First, with many commentators mentioning how the days of American-led regime change and nation-building are over, there may be less faith in both the willingness and capacity to rewrite given societies’ social contracts. Second, as the US shifts its attention from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific in order to counter China, the realization is growing that the international community, particularly the democracies, are not going…
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Aug
25
2021
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East Asia Summary: August 22-25, 2021

Regional summaries,
The implications of Afghanistan are still on the minds of much of Southeast Asia, with China arguing that it signals the decline of American power generally and the unreliability of US alliances more specifically, in Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Asia. Writers from Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, however, argue that US relationships with these allies are older, deeper, and rooted in fundamental strategic interests. The Nikkei Asia argues that “[t]o make the de facto encirclement of China more effective, Washington must gain the cooperation of the ASEAN countries, the geographic center of the Indo-Pacific”, but that the Biden administration’s…
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Aug
24
2021
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South Asia Summary: August 21-24, 2021

Regional summaries,
ThePrint’s “India's Domestic Politics Makes China-Pakistan Nexus More Potent in Taliban Era” is a good place to start this summary. Conventional wisdom in India, it says, holds that Kashmir is most vulnerable to the surge of terrorism that is feared will pour out of a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, but actually it is the trunk of the body politic that is most vulnerable. If the Taliban is not what it was 20 years ago, nor is India. It is now divided by the Hindutva ideology of the ruling BJP, as well as numerous social and economic problems. In order to check Indian…
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Aug
23
2021
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Southeast Asia Summary: August 20-24, 2021

Regional summaries,
There seem to be three takes on the Afghanistan debacle in Southeast Asia: Some are concerned about the conditions in Afghanistan itself, and accuse the US of pulling out too haphazardly or accuse the US of having no business invading the country in the first place. Some, particularly in Singapore and the Philippines, worry about Afghanistan exporting ideology and fighters to the region. Many are worried more about what the US's failure in Afghanistan implies about American geopolitical will and competence. US VP Kamala Harris will visit Vietnam from August 24-26. Her talks with the Vietnamese government are "aimed at…
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Aug
21
2021
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South Asia Roundup: August 17-21, 2021

Regional summaries,
Afghanistan Newspapers from around the region are hemorrhaging stories about the plight of Afghanistan. There are simply too many to give justice to all of them. Pakistan won and America lost. China and India won and lost, respectively, as well, but there are still risks and opportunities for each. Perhaps the most overwhelming sentiment is shock, both at the speed of the Taliban victory and at the uncertainty as to its implications for South Asia and the perceived struggle between the US and China. In Pakistan, there generally seems to be a sense that the geopolitical chessboard has radically shifted…
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Aug
19
2021
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Southeast Asia Summary: August 16-19, 2021

Regional summaries,
Even in Southeast Asia, attention has largely shifted from disputes about ASEAN and the South China Sea to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and its implications. As in previous days, many see American betrayal or myopia as the root cause of the defeat there. Some see the rapid withdrawal as part of a plan to destabilize China’s western border while putting more direct pressure on China’s eastern and southern coasts. Some see America having lost its willingness to defend “the Pax Americana that is still the basis of world order”, and the message in places like Taiwan and Japan is…
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Aug
18
2021
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East Asia Summary: August 15-18, 2021

Regional summaries,
ASEAN has been replaced by Afghanistan as the main topic of interest in East Asia in recent days. China has derided the US failure in South Asia and warned Taiwan that the US would abandon them as they did the Afghans and South Vietnamese. The People’s Daily said Taiwanese media outlets and internet users were questioning US commitment.A piece in The Taipei Times argued that Taiwan was more analogous to the Taliban in the Taiwan Strait since it was the smaller force and possessed a geographical advantage. Taiwan News says international recognition of the island state is “closer than ever”.…
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Aug
17
2021
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South Asia Round-up: August 13-17, 2021

Regional summaries,
The big story in South Asia has unsurprisingly been the fate of Afghanistan, what it will mean for the respective countries in the region (including China), and what it says about their neighbors (and the US). Pakistan, India, the US, and the Afghan government get most of the blame. Each of these countries are accused, for lack of a better word, of being the greatest beneficiaries of what has happened, depending on who one reads. China and extremists across the region are also seen as beneficiaries by many. The biggest geopolitical loser is undoubtedly seen to be the US, but…
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Aug
16
2021
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Southeast Asia Roundup: August 12-16, 2021

Regional summaries,
Topic: AFGHANISTANAfghanistan makes us ask, has the United States been doing its best to defend true values or has it been trying to protect its interests and bailing on dependents when it can? (Thailand)Any notion of reliance on the US should be quashed (Thailand)Afghanistan's fall shows US is fading, temperamental, and unreliable; should never be trusted again (Thailand)Expect Afghanistan's terror to spread (Philippines: Bloomberg)The US has lost credibility in Afghanistan (Philippines)Topic: MYANMARUS & China more preoccupied with each other than Myanmar (Singapore)Will ASEAN legitimize the Myanmar junta in November? (Indonesia)ASEAN divided by US-China rivalry, democracy-autocracy, elitist-populist pressures (Myanmar)Next two years…
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Aug
15
2021
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East Asia Summary: August 11-15, 2021

Regional summaries,
East Asia’s English-language press has a lot on its mind, including Chinese designs on Okinawa, the US-ROK military drills, the status of Taiwan, Lithuania, human rights, COVID strategies, the South China Sea, Afghanistan, and China’s role in the global order. China Military explained that China opposes the military drills in South Korea, because they were not being used to make South Korea safer but to drag the South into the Indo-Pacific alliance. The exercises would be “a major obstacle to settlement of the Korean peninsula issue”, and South Korea should pursue an “independent national defense strategy”. The North Korean Ministry…
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Aug
13
2021
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South Asia Summary: August 10-13, 2021

Regional summaries,
Opinion writers in South Asia are grappling with China’s role in the rapidly changing geopolitical terrain of the region with attitudes varying between India and its neighbors. Indian perspectives seem rather pessimistic, and analysts are looking on the horizon to Tibet and its role in Sino-Indian relations. Pakistan seems to prefer what it sees as China’s “geoeconomic” order as opposed to the US’s “geopolitical” order.A retired Indian general writes in ThePrint that India is not strong enough to compete with China and won’t be for another 20-30 years. He sees evidence of this in the partial disengagement agreement recently concluded…
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Aug
12
2021
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Southeast Asia Summary: August 9-12, 2021

Regional summaries,
The South China Sea continues to be on the minds of much of Southeast Asia. A piece in The Jakarta Post argued that Indonesia, Australia, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea, as well as the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and France should create “a multilateral grouping” that sets “matters of maritime security in the Southwest Pacific as a priority”. This grouping “could balance out any external force that would seek to influence the vacuum that is the Southwest Pacific”. VietnamPlus emphasized in multiple pieces that renewed South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations (most notably with China) must be “consistent with…
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Aug
11
2021
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East Asian Summary: August 8-11, 2021

Regional summaries,
“China has…articulated the potential consequences to Lithuania” but the latter has “persisted” in agreeing to allow Taiwan to open a Taiwan Representative Office rather than a “Taipei” Representative Office, writes China Military. The Baltic country will “realize in time the potential serious consequences” of its decision (although those consequences were not spelled out there). Lithuania is violating the One China Principle, it said in another article, solely to show the country’s loyalty to the US. The People’s Daily warned Taiwan that seeking independence and colluding with “external forces” is “futile and doomed to fail”. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has “exaggerated…
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Aug
10
2021
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South Asia Summary: August 6-10, 2021

Regional summaries,
Let’s begin with a look at how Indian Prime Minister Modi’s Act East Policy--which seeks to integrate India, especially Northeast India, and ASEAN--is faring.A columnist in Bangladesh’s The Independent reports on West Bengali chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s national ambitions. After having defeated the BJP in her home state, Banerjee wants to seize on the alleged Pegasus spying scandal and present an opposition “front against the BJP in each state” come the Lok Sabha (national parliamentary) elections in 2024.“Khela [hobe] will happen in all states until BJP is removed from the country”, The Independent says, but a writer on News18 questions…
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Aug
09
2021
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Southeast Asia Summary: August 5-9, 2021

Regional summaries,
The meaning of “ASEAN centrality” seems to be on the minds of much of Southeast Asia as the economic union tries to grapple with the crisis in Myanmar and the growing dispute in the South China Sea. A piece in The Jakarta Post questions ASEAN’s capacity to deal with Myanmar. Because Southeast Asia is such a critical region, ASEAN should be based on integration rather than cooperation, it says. Cooperation is fit for a common market but not political goals. Since a consensual approach is unlikely to make any real headway in Myanmar, despite Indonesia’s best efforts, ASEAN should scale…
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Aug
08
2021
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East Asia Summary: August 4-8, 2021

Regional summaries,
ASEAN’s role in the Indo-Pacific is on the minds of writers in Japan, China, and North Korea. While the DPRK’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs praises ASEAN’s aspiration to non-interference, The Japan Times argues that ASEAN’s principle of non-interference is failing to achieve results in Myanmar, and thus, the world should be putting greater pressure on both Myanmar and ASEAN.China, meanwhile, sees threats from US engagement with ASEAN. According to The People’s Daily, the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, “urged maintaining the centrality of ASEAN to jointly counter geopolitical confrontation. He also urged preventing certain major powers outside the region from…
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